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Why do Biden's votes not follow Benford's Law? Rick Kamen 9 Views • 6 years ago

My book is cheap at Waterstones and signed at Maths Gear:
https://www.waterstones.com/bo....ok/humble-pi/matt-pa
https://mathsgear.co.uk/produc....ts/humble-pi-signed-

Check out Steve Mould's Numberphile video about Benford's Law.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XXjlR2OK1kM

Buy a signed copy of "How Many Socks Make a Pair?" by Rob Eastaway.
https://mathsgear.co.uk/produc....ts/copy-of-signed-co

There’s more on Mark Nigrini’s work here:
http://www.nigrini.com/benfords-law/

"Benford's Law and the Detection of Election Fraud" 2011 paper.
https://www.cambridge.org/core..../journals/political-

And for balance, here is a paper critical of that other paper (but only in the use of a 'second digit' check and they do not dispute the main Benford's Law claims.). https://pdfs.semanticscholar.o....rg/e667/b8ad9f589928
And here is a paper by the same author specifically about the 2020 US election results:
http://www-personal.umich.edu/~wmebane/inapB.pdf

Get your Chicago Board of Election Commissioners data here!
https://chicagoelections.gov/en/election-results.asp?election=251&race=11

Yep, 2069 precincts. Some would say that's too many.
https://data.cityofchicago.org..../Facilities-Geograph

If you must, here are links to people using Benford's Law to suggest the Biden votes were fraudulent. Please do no harass or brigade anyone.
https://github.com/cjph8914/20....20_benfords/blob/mai
https://jonsnewplace.wordpress.....com/2020/11/07/joe-

CORRECTIONS
- Hello loyal viewer. If you are reading this you most likely regularly watch my videos and know that I put corrections here. But the comment section on this video has been, to put it lightly, "wild". I don't think anyone is checking the corrections here! So I'm going to break with tradition and put the corrections in a pinned comment. But in short:
- I should have said I used the Chicago data (instead of a swing state, let's say) because that is what people claiming election fraud were using. I didn't pick it myself to make a point.
- Foolishly I cut a bit of the video where I talk about how Trump's data is also a bad Benford fit but that massive spike of 1s makes it look like a good match. Check out how low 3, 4 and 5 are.
- There has been specific criticism of aspects of that paper I read from, but only the usual back-and-forth of academics. Everyone agrees with the idea that Benford is not a magic tool to detect election fraud (nor is any statistical tool really; they all require careful interpretation).
- As always, let me know if you spot any other mistakes.

Thanks to my Patreon supporters who mean I can spend TWO DAYS trawling through election stats and making plots. I'm meant to be writing a new book you know. So, thanks a lot.

https://www.patreon.com/standupmaths

As always: thanks to Jane Street who support my channel. They're amazing.
https://www.janestreet.com/

Filming and editing by Matt Parker
Music by Howard Carter
Design by Simon Wright and Adam Robinson

MATT PARKER: Stand-up Mathematician
Website: http://standupmaths.com/
US book: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.....com/books/610964/hu
UK book: https://mathsgear.co.uk/collec....tions/books/products

Attorney General Bill Barr: No evidence of widespread voter fraud Rick Kamen 9 Views • 6 years ago

Attorney General Bill Barr told the Associated Press today there is no evidence of widespread fraud that would change the election outcome. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO: https://cnb.cx/2NGeIvi

President Donald Trump’s spokeswoman refused to say Wednesday whether Trump still has faith in Attorney General William Barr, a day after Barr said the Justice Department has not found evidence that widespread ballot fraud led to President-elect Joe Biden’s victory.

Barr’s statement badly undercut baseless allegations by Trump and his campaign legal team that the Republican president was swindled out of reelection by voting fraud.

“To date, we have not seen fraud on a scale that could have effected a different outcome in the election,” Barr told the Associated Press in an interview Tuesday.

That interview sparked immediate speculation that Trump would fire Barr, who until Tuesday was seen as a staunchly loyal supporter of the president.

During a press conference Wednesday, a reporter asked White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany, “Does [Trump] still have faith in Attorney General Bill Barr? Does he still have confidence in Bill Barr?”

McEnany did not directly answer that question.

“If we have any personnel announcements, I’ll let you know,” she replied.

That answer from Trump press secretaries in the past has sometimes been followed by the termination of the administration official being asked about.

McEnany said that she had not spoken to the president about the attorney general’s statement, after a reporter asked if Trump was upset by Barr’s comments.

The press secretary said she was unaware of whether Trump has spoken to the attorney general since the AP’s interview was published.

“I know the attorney general was here yesterday for a preplanned meeting with the chief of staff [Mark Meadows] and they discussed an array of issues but I’m not aware if the president has spoken to him directly,” McEnany said.

The Justice Department, which Barr leads, did not immediately respond to CNBC’s requests for comment on McEnany’s remarks.

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THE END of LIFE as we KNOW IT – It’s TOO LATE! Rick Kamen 8 Views • 3 years ago

Infiltration into our system has been subtle and slow. Now, it seems it’s too late and it’s the end of the life as we know it.

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