Latest videos
My book is cheap at Waterstones and signed at Maths Gear:
https://www.waterstones.com/bo....ok/humble-pi/matt-pa
https://mathsgear.co.uk/produc....ts/humble-pi-signed-
Check out Steve Mould's Numberphile video about Benford's Law.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XXjlR2OK1kM
Buy a signed copy of "How Many Socks Make a Pair?" by Rob Eastaway.
https://mathsgear.co.uk/produc....ts/copy-of-signed-co
There’s more on Mark Nigrini’s work here:
http://www.nigrini.com/benfords-law/
"Benford's Law and the Detection of Election Fraud" 2011 paper.
https://www.cambridge.org/core..../journals/political-
And for balance, here is a paper critical of that other paper (but only in the use of a 'second digit' check and they do not dispute the main Benford's Law claims.). https://pdfs.semanticscholar.o....rg/e667/b8ad9f589928
And here is a paper by the same author specifically about the 2020 US election results:
http://www-personal.umich.edu/~wmebane/inapB.pdf
Get your Chicago Board of Election Commissioners data here!
https://chicagoelections.gov/en/election-results.asp?election=251&race=11
Yep, 2069 precincts. Some would say that's too many.
https://data.cityofchicago.org..../Facilities-Geograph
If you must, here are links to people using Benford's Law to suggest the Biden votes were fraudulent. Please do no harass or brigade anyone.
https://github.com/cjph8914/20....20_benfords/blob/mai
https://jonsnewplace.wordpress.....com/2020/11/07/joe-
CORRECTIONS
- Hello loyal viewer. If you are reading this you most likely regularly watch my videos and know that I put corrections here. But the comment section on this video has been, to put it lightly, "wild". I don't think anyone is checking the corrections here! So I'm going to break with tradition and put the corrections in a pinned comment. But in short:
- I should have said I used the Chicago data (instead of a swing state, let's say) because that is what people claiming election fraud were using. I didn't pick it myself to make a point.
- Foolishly I cut a bit of the video where I talk about how Trump's data is also a bad Benford fit but that massive spike of 1s makes it look like a good match. Check out how low 3, 4 and 5 are.
- There has been specific criticism of aspects of that paper I read from, but only the usual back-and-forth of academics. Everyone agrees with the idea that Benford is not a magic tool to detect election fraud (nor is any statistical tool really; they all require careful interpretation).
- As always, let me know if you spot any other mistakes.
Thanks to my Patreon supporters who mean I can spend TWO DAYS trawling through election stats and making plots. I'm meant to be writing a new book you know. So, thanks a lot.
https://www.patreon.com/standupmaths
As always: thanks to Jane Street who support my channel. They're amazing.
https://www.janestreet.com/
Filming and editing by Matt Parker
Music by Howard Carter
Design by Simon Wright and Adam Robinson
MATT PARKER: Stand-up Mathematician
Website: http://standupmaths.com/
US book: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.....com/books/610964/hu
UK book: https://mathsgear.co.uk/collec....tions/books/products
Evidence of Election Fraud?: https://youtu.be/bmC3HBDkrgk
Trump's Lawsuits Explained: https://youtu.be/h6pI3-nWmSQ
Since the election, Trump and his supporters have claimed that it was rigged. Short on hard evidence, some turned to statistics and found Benford's Law, a mathematical law that some claim could prove Biden's guilt. In this video, we explain the law, what it tells us about 2020 and if we can tell if anything suspect happened.
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1 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford%27s_law
2 - https://www.journalofaccountan....cy.com/issues/2017/a
3 - https://www.eipartnership.net/....rapid-response/what-
4 - https://fr.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN27Q3AI
5 - https://www.cambridge.org/core..../journals/political-
6 - https://twitter.com/DataElefan....tFan/status/13248384
7 - https://github.com/cjph8914/2020_benfords
8 - www.youtube.com/watch?v=etx0k1nLn78&ab_channel=Stand-upMaths
9 - https://twitter.com/jengolbeck..../status/132514996135
10 - https://www.ntd.com/statistica....l-anomalies-in-biden
11 - https://twitter.com/toad_spott....ed/status/1324393232
12 - https://www.fox6now.com/news/8....3-turn-out-for-milwa
13 - http://www-personal.umich.edu/~wmebane/inapB.pdf
‘It’s an affront to democracy’ — Former election security chief Chris Krebs slammed Republicans for continuing to spread false claims about the election.
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White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany says the Trump campaign still has active cases challenging election results in Wisconsin and Nevada. Attorney General William Barr said on Tuesday that the Justice Department found no evidence of widespread voter fraud.
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‘This hearing gives a platform to conspiracy theories and lies’ — Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) slammed Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) for echoing Trump’s false claims of fraud during a hearing on ‘election irregularities.’
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Former Director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, Christopher Krebs, was publicly fired by the president on Twitter for declaring the presidential election secure. He sits down with Stephen to discuss the need for Republican leaders to stand up for American democracy, and to debunk some of the lies the president is spreading about election fraud. #Colbert #Krebs #ChristopherKrebs
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The president's team is pointing to newly released surveillance video from as evidence of election fraud. 11Alive looked into the claims. Here is what we found: https://www.11alive.com/articl....e/news/politics/elec
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Republican lawsuits in the 2020 Election don’t amount to much. But the future of election law under a new US Supreme Court is a different story.
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When Joe Biden won the US Presidential election, President Donald Trump threatened legal action in some of the battleground states that were among the last to count their ballots. It was all part of a campaign to cast doubt on the legality of mail-in ballots, which disproportionately favored Joe Biden. The lawsuits themselves likely won’t alter the course of the election. But one in Pennsylvania sheds light on how the current US Supreme Court might rule on future election laws.
For Vox's coverage on this:
https://www.vox.com/2020/11/3/....21546419/supreme-cou
https://www.vox.com/2020/11/6/....21552720/trump-2020-
https://www.vox.com/2020/11/5/....21551983/supreme-cou
https://www.vox.com/2020/11/5/....21550772/trump-lawsu
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‘We simply picked up the phone and called’ — People are sending this Georgia state rep flowers after she used facts to defend a long list of residents wrongly accused of committing voter fraud.
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Former White House press secretary Sean Spicer says the Trump team need to be transparent with Americans over evidence of alleged voter fraud. Subscribe: https://bit.ly/2noaGhv Get more breaking news at: https://bit.ly/2nobVgF
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(Nov. 25) President Donald Trump will reportedly travel to Gettysburg, Pennsylvania, on Wednesday to attend a meeting with his lawyer Rudy Giuliani and state Republican lawmakers examining accusations of election impropriety.
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Several prominent Republicans condemned U.S. President Donald Trump's claims of a 'stolen' election.
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Here is the Dr Shiva Ayyadurai video I am talking about:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ztu5Y5obWPk
This is my previous video on Benford's Law:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etx0k1nLn78
Support me on Patreon and I'll make more maths videos. Probably not on election data, mind you. (Please, for the love of plot, no more election data.)
https://www.patreon.com/standupmaths
The page of working-out from this video is on eBay with all money going to the charity WaterAid.
https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/363180157841
This is where the Kent County data comes from:
https://electionreporting.com/....county/db3f9865-656b
Here is the spreadsheet I show in the video with my plots:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/7gus....bewresl6zsg/Kent%20C
Dr Shiva's video title is "Dr.SHIVA LIVE: MIT PhD Analysis of Michigan Votes Reveals Unfortunate Truth of U.S. Voting Systems." but the presentation within the video is called "Mathematics Analysis of Trump-Biden 2020 Election Vote Counts in Four Counties in the State of Michigan".
And finally, I know I didn't mention it in the video but Humble Pi is still cheap at Waterstones and signed at Maths Gear:
https://www.waterstones.com/bo....ok/humble-pi/matt-pa
https://mathsgear.co.uk/produc....ts/humble-pi-signed-
CORRECTIONS
- At 00:32 do I say "date" here instead of "data"? I think I do. I meant "data".
- In hindsight I should have said one more "subtract the percentage of people who voted by party who voted Republican" at about 06:12. But my diagram points at the right bit so it should be clear.
- Let me know if you spot any more mistakes!
Thanks to my Patreon supporters who mean I can spend ANOTHER TWO DAYS trawling through election stats and making EVEN MORE plots. These videos had better be making a difference.
https://www.patreon.com/standupmaths
As always: thanks to Jane Street who support my channel. They're amazing.
https://www.janestreet.com/
Filming and editing by Matt Parker
Music by Howard Carter
Design by Simon Wright and Adam Robinson
MATT PARKER: Stand-up Mathematician
Website: http://standupmaths.com/
US book: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.....com/books/610964/hu
UK book: https://mathsgear.co.uk/collec....tions/books/products
